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Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, And Optimization Tec

Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, And Optimization Tec

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  • ISBN:9780471789000
  • Editorial: Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Fecha de la edición:
  • Número de la edición: 2
  • Colección: Wiley finance
  • Encuadernación:Tapa dura
  • Dimensiones: 0 cm x 0 cm
  • Nº Pág.:480
  • Idiomas:Ingles,Inglés

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The financial arena is filled with risk, and to successfully operate in this environment, risk analysis should be a part of every business decision you make--from corporate strategy to asset allocation.
Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolutionof risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element.In Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it. Openingwith a brief introduction to uncertainty and risk, this comprehensive guide moves on to detail some of the most important aspects of modeling and analyzing risk within a business environment.
Divided into nine information-packed parts, ModelingRisk provides both a qualitative and quantitativedescription of risk, as well as an introduction to the methods used to identify, predict, quantify, value, hedge, diversify, and manage it. Key concepts include:
*Model building (decision analysis and modeling)

*Monte Carlo simulation (risk quantification and prediction)

*Real options analysis (strategic options and management flexibility)

*Forecasting (simulation and prediction with and without data)

*Optimization (combinations of deterministic, dynamic, stochastic, continuous, discrete, and nonlinear problems)

*Applying risk analysis in a variety of areas (the book includes case studies in pharmaceutical, biotech deal structuring, oil and gas exploration and production, military strategy, financial planning, employee stock options, healthcare administration,and global satellite systems)

*And much more
To help solidify your understanding of the topics discussed, Modeling Risk is supported by a com?panion CD-ROM that contains innovative trial versions of the author's Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software, as well as multiple Excel spreadsheet models. With these tools at your disposal, you'll quickly discover how to quantify the risks associated with different types of business uncertainties.
Don't let the threat of risk paralyze your business decisions. Instead, learn how to take advantage of the opportunities that risk presents. By combining expert advice and in-depth business cases with cutting-edge analysis software, Modeling Risk can help you better understand risk and confidently apply your knowledge of it to important business endeavors.

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