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Modeling Risk + Dvd "Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecast"

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecast

Modeling Risk + Dvd "Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecast". Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecast

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  • ISBN:9780470592212
  • Editorial: Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Fecha de la edición:
  • Número de la edición: 2
  • Encuadernación:
  • Dimensiones: 0 cm x 0 cm
  • Nº Pág.:986
  • Idiomas:Ingles

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An updated guide to risk analysis and modeling Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it. This Second Edition provides professionals in all industries a more comprehensive guide on such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, optimization, real options, and more. * Includes new examples, questions, and exercises as well as updates using Excel 2007 * Book supported by author's proprietary risk analysis software found on the companion CD-ROM * Offers both a qualitative and quantitative description of risk Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that risk managers need to successfully conduct risk analysis. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file

Preface
What's New in the Second Edition
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Introduction 1
Part One Risk Identification
Chapter 1 Moving Beyond Uncertainty 11
A Brief History Of Risk: What Exactly Is Risk? 11
Uncertainty Versus Risk 12
Why Is Risk Important In Making Decisions? 14
Dealing With Risk The Old-Fashioned Way 18
The Look And Feel Of Risk And Uncertainty 21
Integrated Risk Management Framework 23
Questions 29
Part Two Risk Evaluation
Chapter 2 From Risk To Riches 33
Taming The Beast 33
The Basics Of Risk 35
The Nature Of Risk And Return 36
The Statistics Of Risk 36
The Measurements Of Risk 42
Appendix computing Risk 44
Questions 54
Chapter 3 A Guide To Model-Building Etiquette 56
Document The Model 56
Separate Inputs, Calculations, And Results 59
Protect The Models 61
Make The Model User-Friendly: Data Validation And Alerts 62
Track The Model 64
Automate The Model With VBA 65

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