Agent-based computational modeling is changing the face of social science. In Generative Social Science, Joshua Epstein argues that this powerful, novel technique permits the social sciences to meet a fundamentally new standard of explanation, in which one "grows" the phenomenon of interest in an artificial society of interacting agents: heterogeneous, boundedly rational actors, represented as mathematical or software objects. After elaborating this notion of generative explanation in a pair of overarching foundational chapters, Epstein illustrates it with examples chosen from such far-flung fields as archaeology, civil conflict, the evolution of norms, epidemiology, retirement economics, spatial games, and organizational adaptation. In elegant chapter preludes, he explains how these widely diverse modeling studies support his sweeping case for generative explanation.
This book represents a powerful consolidation of Epstein's interdisciplinary research activities in the decade since the publication of his and Robert Axtell's landmark volume, Growing Artificial Societies. Beautifully illustrated, Generative Social Science includes a CD that contains animated movies of core model runs, and programs allowing users to easily change assumptions and explore models, making it an invaluable text for courses in modeling at all levels.
Introduction xi
Prelude to Chapter 1: The Generativist Manifesto 1
Chapter 1: Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 4
Prelude to Chapter 2: Confession of a Wandering Bark 47
Chapter 2: Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 50
Prelude to Chapter 3: Equilibrium, Explanation, and Gauss's Tombstone 72
Chapter 3: Non-Explanatory Equilibria: An Extremely Simple Game with (Mostly) Unattainable Fixed Points by Joshua M. Epstein and Ross A. Hammond 75
Appendix to Chapter 3: Large Effect of a Subtle Rule Change 86
Prelude to Chapters 4-6: Generating Civilizations: The 1050 Project and the Artificial Anasazi Model 88
Chapter 4: Understanding Anasazi Culture Change through Agent-Based Modeling Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Joshua M. Epstein, Robert L. Axtell, Alan C. Swedlund, Miles T. Parker, and Stephen McCarroll 90
Chapter 5: Population Growth and Collapse in a Multiagent Model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jason Harburger, Shubha Chakravarty, Ross Hammond, Jon Parker, and Miles Parker 117
Chapter 6: The Evolution of Social Behavior in the Prehistoric American Southwest by George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jeffrey S. Dean, and Joshua M. Epstein 130
Prelude to Chapter 7: Generating Patterns in the Timing of Retirement 144
Chapter 7: Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement by Robert L. Axtell and Joshua M. Epstein 146
Prelude to Chapter 8: Generating Classes without Conquest 175
Chapter 8: The Emergence of Classes in a Multi-Agent Bargaining Model by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, and H. Peyton Young 177
Prelude to Chapter 9: Generating Zones of Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game 196
Chapter 9: Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoner's Dilemma by Joshua M. Epstein 199
Appendix to Chapter 9: Generating Norm Maps in the Demographic Coordination Game 222
Prelude to Chapter 10: Generating Thoughtless Conformity to Norms 225
Chapter 10: Learning to be Thoughtless: Social Norms and Individual Computation by Joshua M. Epstein 228
Prelude to Chapter 11: Generating Patterns of Spontaneous Civil Violence 245
Chapter 11: Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 247
Prelude to Chapter 12: Generating Epidemic Dynamics 271
Chapter 12: Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein, Derek A.T. Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty, Ramesh M. Singha, and Donald S. Burke 277
Prelude to Chapter 13: Generating Optimal Organizations 307
Chapter 13: Growing Adaptive Organizations: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 309
Coda 345
Index 349
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