For most of the vast span of human history, economic growth was all but nonexistent. Then, about two centuries ago, some nations began to emerge from this epoch of economic stagnation, experiencing sustained economic growth that led to significant increases in standards of living and profoundly altered the level and distribution of wealth, population, education, and health across the globe. The question ever since has been - why? This is the first book to put forward a unified theory of economic growth that accounts for the entire growth process, from the dawn of civilization to today. Oded Galor, who founded the field of unified growth theory, identifies the historical and prehistorical forces behind the differential transition timing from stagnation to growth and the emergence of income disparity around the world. Galor shows how the interaction between technological progress and population ultimately raised the importance of education in coping with the rapidly changing technological environment, brought about significant reduction in fertility rates, and enabled some economies to devote greater resources toward a steady increase in per capita income, paving the way for sustained economic growth. This title presents a unified theory of economic growth from the dawn of civilization to today. It explains the worldwide disparities in living standards and population we see today. It provides a comprehensive overview of the three phases of the development process. It analyzes the Malthusian theory and its empirical support. It examines theories of demographic transition and their empirical significance. It explores the interaction between economic development and human evolution.
Preface xv CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Toward a Unified Theory of Economic Growth 3 1.2 Origins of Global Disparity in Living Standards 6 1.2.1 Catalysts for the Engine of Transition from Stagnation to Growth 6 1.2.2 Persistence of Prehistorical Biogeographical Conditions 7 1.2.3 Convergence Clubs 8 CHAPTER 2: From Stagnation to Growth 9 2.1 The Malthusian Epoch 10 2.1.1 Stagnation of Income per Capita in the Long Run 11 2.1.2 Population Dynamism 12 2.1.3 Fertility and Mortality 14 2.1.4 Fluctuations in Income and Population 15 2.1.5 Technological Progress 16 2.1.6 Main Characteristics of the Epoch 17 2.2 The Post-Malthusian Regime 17 2.2.1 Take-off in Income per Capita 18 2.2.2 Spike in Population Growth 18 2.2.3 Fertility and Mortality 23 2.2.4 Industrialization and Urbanization 25 2.2.5 Globalization and the Pace of Industrialization 27 2.2.6 Central Features of the Regime 29 2.3 Industrialization and Human Capital Formation 30 2.3.1 Industrial Demand for Education 31 2.3.2 Land Concentration and Human Capital Formation 37 2.3.3 Land Reforms and Education Reforms 39 2.3.4 Political and Education Reforms 42 2.3.5 Human Capital Formation in Less Developed Economies 45 2.3.6 Main Insights 45 2.4 The Demographic Transition 46 2.4.1 Decline in Population Growth 46 2.4.2 Fertility Decline 49 2.4.3 Mortality Decline 51 2.4.4 Life Expectancy 52 2.4.5 Central Characteristics 54 2.5 The Modern Growth Regime 55 2.5.1 Rapid Industrialization and Human Capital Formation 55 2.5.2 Sustained Growth of Income per Capita 57 2.5.3 Divergence in Income and Population across the Globe 57 2.5.4 Insights for Comparative Development 64 2.6 Concluding Remarks 65 CHAPTER 3: The Malthusian Theory 67 3.1 The Basic Structure of the Model 68 3.1.1 Production 69 3.1.2 Preferences and Budget Constraints 69 3.1.3 Optimization 70 3.2 The Evolution of the Economy 70 3.2.1 Population Dynamics 70 3.2.2 The Time Path of Income per Worker 72 3.3 Testable Predictions 74 3.4 Empirical Framework 74 3.4.1 Empirical Strategy 74 3.4.2 The Data 77 3.4.3 The Neolithic Revolution and Technological Advancement 78 3.4.4 Basic Regression Model 79 3.5 Cross-Country Evidence 80 3.5.1 Population Density in 1500 CE 81 3.5.2 Population Density in Earlier Historical Periods 86 3.5.3 Income per Capita versus Population Density 92 3.5.4 Effect of Technological Sophistication 96 3.5.5 Robustness to Technology Diffusion and Geographical Features 103 3.5.6 Rejection of Alternative Theories 105 3.6 Concluding Remarks 108 3.7 Appendix 110 3.7.1 First-Stage Regressions 110 3.7.2 Variable Definitions and Sources 110 CHAPTER 4: Theories of the Demographic Transition 115 4.1 The Rise in Income per Capita 116 4.1.1 The Theory and Its Testable Predictions 116 4.1.2 The Evidence 118 4.2 The Decline in Infant and Child Mortality 120 4.2.1 The Central Hypothesis 120 4.2.2 Evidence 121 4.3 The Rise in Demand for Human Capital 123 4.3.1 The Theory 125 4.3.2 Evidence: Education and the Demographic Transition 127 4.3.3 Quantity-Quality Trade-off in the Modern Era 129 4.4 The Rise in Demand for Human Capital: Reinforcing Mechanisms 130 4.4.1 The Decline in Child Labor 131 4.4.2 The Rise in Life Expectancy 131 4.4.3 Evolution of Preferences for Offspring Quality 132 4.5 The Decline in the Gender Gap 132 4.5.1 The Theory and Its Testable Predictions 133 4.5.2 The Evidence 135 4.6 The Old-Age Security Hypothesis 136 4.7 Concluding Remarks 136 4.8 Appendix 138 4.8.1 Optimal Investment in Child Quality 138 4.8.2 Optimal Investment in Child Quantity 139 CHAPTER 5: Unified Growth Theory 140 5.1 The Fundamental Challenge 142 5.2 Incompatibility of Non-Unified Growth Theories 143 5.2.1 The Malthusian Theory 143 5.2.2 Theories of Modern Economic Growth 145 5.3 Central Building Blocks 146 5.3.1 The Malthusian Elements 147 5.3.2 Engines of Technological Progress 147 5.3.3 The Origin of Human Capital Formatio
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