Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of investing in the stock market, living with the risks of terrorism, developing policies on genetically-modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. This volume is the most wide-ranging and thorough examination of 'uncertainty.'Theoretical perspectives are drawn from complexity science, economics, futures, history, art history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty in risk management and practice are examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, policy, politics and music. Key problems that are a subject of focus are the environment, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book build on major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and seek to develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.
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Preface by Jerome Ravetz
Pt. I Setting the Scene
1 Introduction by Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson 1
2 The Many Faces and Masks of Uncertainty by Michael Smithson 13
3 Adopting Orphans: Uncertainty and Other Neglected Aspects of Complex Problems by Gabriele Brammer 27
Pt. II More Than a Cabinet of Curiosities: Disciplinary and Practice Perspectives on Uncertainty
4 When Action Can't Wait: Investigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks by Aileen J. Plant 45
5 Uncertainty and Religion: Ten Provisional Theses by Stephen Pickard 55
6 Uncertainty in the Physical Sciences: How Big? How Small? Is It Actually There At All? by Stephen J. Buckman 71
7 Statistics: An Essential Tool for Model Citizens by Robyn G. Attewell 81
8 A Philosopher's Guide to Probability by Alan Hajek 91
9 Musical Improvisation, Creativity and Uncertainty by John Mackey 105
10 Uncertainty as a Creative Force in Visual Art by Sasha Grishin 115
11 Historians and Disputes over Uncertainty by Ann Curthoys 127
12 Approaches to Uncertain Futures by Kate Delaney 137
13 Embracing Social Uncertainties with Complex Systems Science by Pascal Perez 147
14 Heroin : Injected with Uncertainty by Alison Ritter 157
15 Political Practice: Uncertainty, Ethics and Outcomes by Michael Moore 171
16 Smoke and Mirrors: Managing Uncertainty in the Public Health Sector by Liz Furler 183
17 Economists and Uncertainty by John Quiggin 195
