The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective offers a one-stop reference that distills and summarizes the recent scholarship on economic expectations. Investigating the dynamics, effects, and determinants of economic expectations from a global perspective since the seventeenth century, the book enhances the understanding of expectation formation across time and space.
Expectations drive economic decision-making'and thus offer a fundamental key to understanding economic behavior. Given the centrality of economics to society, the historical study of economic expectations is a highly relevant endeavor, for which this volume provides an accessible starting point. Featuring 33 chapters written by leading scholars from fields ranging from anthropology to political science, this handbook provides a uniquely interdisciplinary perspective. Together, the collection of essays argues that the development of economic theory and empirical research on expectation formation has not taken place in a vacuum. Rather, it must be understood as one strand in a complex entanglement of knowledge production, experiences, and economic and political decision-making, which interacted with, challenged, and transformed each other.
With its broad scope, this handbook will be of interest to students and scholars across multiple disciplines including economic history, economics, sociology, anthropology, psychology, and political science.
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Contributors
01. Introduction
Laetitia Lenel/ Jochen Streb/ Alexander Nützenadel/Ingo Köhler
PART I Approaches and Debates
02. The Rise of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
Pedro Garcia Duarte
03. A Short History in Defense of Adaptive Learning
Stefano Eusepi/Bruce Preston
04. Bounded Rationality, Beliefs, and Behavior
Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch
05. Narratives, Representations, and Expectations
David Tuckett
06. Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters
Christian Conrad/Kajal Lahiri
07. Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households: How they are Formed and their Role in Economic Choices
Michael Weber/Francesco DAcunto
08. Contingent Expectations
Alexander Nützenadel/Jochen Streb
09. From Data to Expectations in Macroeconomics
Jörg Döpke/Ulrich Fritsche
10. On FIRE, News, and Expectations
Zeno Enders/Benjamin Born/ Gernot Müller
11. Economic Expectations and an AI Agent
Ekaterina Svetlova
PART II Practices and Determinants of Expectation Management and Coordination
12. Central Bank Communication with the General Public
Lena Dräger
13. Narratives and the Media
Henrik Müller
14. Civil Jurisdiction and Regulation
Louis Pahlow
15. Beyond Expectations. Consultants as the Modern- Day Oracle
Matthias Kipping/Sebastian Schöttler
16. Economic Forecasting
Laetitia Lenel/Werner Reichmann
17. Market Research as a Strategy of Corporate Expectation Management
Ingo Köhler/Jan Logemann
18. Public Numbers: the Politics of Quantification and Relational Expectations
Tiago Mata
PART III Expectation Formation Across Time and Space
19. Cultures of Uncertainty and Economic Expectations
Eelke de Jong
20. Expectation Formation in Pre-Modern Europe
Angela Huang/Mark Spoerer
21. Uncertainty and Innovation: New Perspectives from Nineteenth-Century Patenting Behavior
Laura Magazzini/Alessandro Nuvolari/Michelangelo Vasta
22. Expectations in the History of Consumption, c.1500 to the Present
Frank Trentmann
23. Saving Behavior in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries
Jan-Otmar Hesse/Sebastian Knake/Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer
24. Demographic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Timothy Guinnane/Jochen Streb
25. Entrepreneurial Expectations in Colonial and Postcolonial Contexts
Marie Huber/Nina Kleinöder/Jonathan Krautter
26. African Entrepreneurs and the Economic Expectation Question: A Transhistorical Survey
Moses Ochonu
PART IV Expectation Formation in Times of Crisis
27. An Unexpected Crisis of Expectations
Mary OSullivan
28. Expectation Formation in (Potential) Sovereign Debt Crises
Laura Rischbieter
29. Monetary Shocks. Business Expectations at the Beginning and End of Two Gold-Based Currency Regimes in the 1870s and 1970s
Jan-Otmar Hesse/Sebastian Teupe
30. Sovereign Expectations: Theory and History in the Financial Shocks and Crises of the 1970s and 1980s
Sebastian Alvarez and Catherine Schenk
31. Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental and Credit Liberalization Policies, and 'Irrational Exuberance' on Housing Markets
Konstantin A. Kholodilin/Sebastian Kohl/Florian Müller
32. The Politics of Expectations in Local Government: (De-)Financialization Processes in the US and Germany
Florian Fastenrath/Agnes Janssen/ Christine Trampusch
33. Expectation Formation in the Coronavirus Pandemic
Jonas Dovern/Fabian Krüger
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