Rapid changes over the last twenty years have impacted every branch of demographic analysis, from birth rates and immigration, to marriage rates and aging. "The Nature of Demography" is a response to these enormous changes. Written by one of the world's leading demographers, this authoritative text offers a systematic and coherent overview of the fundamental ideas governing the study of present and future populations. This book covers formal models as well as the underlying logic and context of demographic reasoning. The text also illustrates recent data and new methodological developments.The first section of this book discusses measurements that involve a single individual, such as mortality and fertility; the second section moves from individual behaviors to population-level phenomena; and, the third section looks at models involving individuals and social structures within the population, such as marriage and migration rates - topics not addressed in such detail in any other demography text. Written for advanced undergraduates and experienced researchers, "The Nature of Demography" contains a wealth of material that will inspire innovative applications in the field. An up-to-date and authoritative textbook by one of the world's leading demographers, it provides: creative use and critique of demography methods; comprehensive and innovative coverage of marriage, migration, and economic demography; and, explanations that reach beyond mathematical formulas to underlying theories of behavior.
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction 1
I Individuals 7
1 Mortality 9
1.1 The Survival Curve 9
1.2 Estimating the Survival Function by the Kaplan-Meier Method 10
1.3 Mean Length of Life and Life Expectancy 12
1.4 Deaths and Probabilities of Dying 13
1.5 Life Tables 15
1.6 Comparison of Mortality and Instantaneous Probabilities 16
1.7 Instantaneous Rates of Mortality 18
1.8 Exponential Functions: Gompertz, Makeham, Weibull 20
1.9 Model Life Tables 22
1.10 Life Insurance and Annuities 24
1.11 Appendix 26
2 Fertility 29
2.1 Measures of Fertility in the Absence of Mortality 29
2.2 Gini and Fecundability 32
2.3 Models of Reproduction 32
2.4 Variation in Fecundability with Age, Intrauterine Mortality, and Permanent Sterility 34
2.5 Natural Fertility 35
2.6 Fertility Controls 37
2.7 Effect on Fertility of Age at Marriage 38
2.8 Length of Nonsusceptible Period after Live Births and Fertility 39
2.9 Contraception 42
2.10 Induced Abortion 43
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