Foreword by Russell Napier.
Acknowledgements.
About the Authors.
List of Tables, Figures and Charts.
Introduction.
Appetiser.
Structure of the book.
Language and jargon.
Academic theories.
Modern Portfolio Theory.
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis.
Forms of investment analysis.
Fundamental analysis.
Monetary analysis.
Technical analysis.
The intuitive approach.
What the book is going to say.
PART I: THE LIQUIDITY THEORY.
1 Types of Trades in Securities.
1.1 Liquidity trades and portfolio trades.
1.2 Information trades and price trades.
1.3 'Efficient prices.
1.4 Expectations of further rises or falls.
2 Persistent Liquidity Trades.
2.1 Demand for money.
2.1.1 Transactions demand for money.
2.1.2 Savings demand for money.
2.1.3 Interest rates and the demand for money.
2.2 Supply of money.
2.2.1 Printing-press money.
2.2.2 Fountain-pen money.
2.2.3 Interest rates and the supply of money.
2.3 Monetary imbalances.
2.4 Excess money in the economy.
2.5 Summary.
3 Extrapolative Expectations.
3.1 Sentiment.
3.2 Intuition.
3.3 Decision-taking inertia.
3.4 Crowds.
3.5 Fundamental and monetary forces in the same direction.
4 Discounting Liquidity Transactions.
4.1 Speculation.
4.2 Timing.
4.3 Short-term risk versus profits in the longer term.
Appendix: Speculation and market patterns.
5 Cyclical Changes Associated with Business Cycles.
5.1 Introduction.
5.2 Direct and indirect effects of money on asset prices.
5.2.1 Money, business cycles and inflation.
5.2.2 Business cycles and fundamental factors: the 'indirect effect on asset prices.
5.2.3 The combination of the indirect and direct effects.
5.3 Strategy.
5.4 Timing.
5.5 Sequences.
5.6 Triggers.
6 Shifts in the Savings Demand for Money.
6.1 The peak of a business cycle.
6.2 Running down bank deposits.
Appendix 6A: Some bond arithmetic.
Appendix 6B: Government bond markets.
PART II: FINANCIAL BUBBLES AND DEBT DEFLATION.
7 Financial Bubbles.
7.1 Detection of a bubble.
7.2 Phases.
7.2.1 Chronically dangerous.
7.2.2 The burst.
7.2.3 Acutely dangerous.
7.3 Crosschecks.
8 Debt Deflation.
8.1 The cure for debt deflation.
8.1.1 Money supply policy.
8.1.2 Fiscal policy.
Appendix: Ignorance of Irving Fishers prescription.
PART III: ELABORATION.
9 Creation of Printing-press Money.
9.1 The UK in more detail.
9.2 Four policies.
10 Control of Fountain-pen Money and the Counterparts of Broad Money.
10.1 Control of bank lending.
10.1.1 The teaching in textbooks.
10.1.2 How central banks operate in practice.
10.2 Bank capital.
10.3 The UK in more detail.
10.4 The 'counterparts of changes in broad money.
10.5 Relationship between the counterparts.
11 Modern Portfolio Theory and the Nature of Risk.
11.1 Summary.
11.2 Expected yield.
11.3 Risk.
11.3.1 Risk and the circumstances of the investor.
11.3.2 Variation in risk - life assurance funds.
11.3.3 Investment managers personal risk.
11.3.4 Unacceptable risks.
11.4 Exploiting skewness.
12 Technical Analysis and Crowds.
12.1 Trends and trading ranges.
12.2 Crowd behaviour.
12.3 Information.
12.4 Trends and momentum.
12.5 Approaching a turning point.
12.6 Turning points.
12.7 Further reading.
13 The Intuitive Approach to Asset Prices.
13.1 Intuition that is a reflection of monetary forces.
13.1.1 Biased reaction to news.
13.1.2 Technical reactions.
13.1.3 Market-makers.
13.1.4 Bulls and bears of the core market-makers.
13.1.5 Summary.
13.2 Intuition that is not a reflection of monetary forces.
13.3 Forced selling.
14 Forms of Analysis.
14.1 Different languages.
14.2 Macroeconomic models.
14.2.1 An hydraulic model.
14.2.2 Large electronic computer models.
14.3 Disequilibrium.
14.4 Intended and actual transactions.
14.5 Accounting identities.
Appendix: Direct Estimates of Supply and Demand for Credit in the US.
PART IV: EVIDENCE AND PRACTICAL EXAMPLES.
15 The UK Markets Prior to 1972.
15.1 UK money supply and a combined capital market price index, 1950-72.
15.2 UK money supply and the equity market, 1927-72.
16 The US Equity Market 1960-2002.
17 Two Forecasts.
17.1 Health warning.
17.2 Prediction of the October 1987 crash.
17.3 Prediction of the top of the US equity market in April/May 2000.
17.4 Postscript.
18 Debt Deflation, Practical Experience.
18.1 The US in the 1930s.
18.2 Japan in the 1990s and early 2000s.
PART V MONITORING DATA.
19 Monitoring Current Data for the Monetary Aggregates.
19.1 Erratic data.
19.2 Which aggregate?
19.3 A target aggregate.
19.4 An expert approach.
19.5 Timing of the availability of data.
19.5.1 Timing of publication.
19.5.2 Whiplashes.
19.6 Understanding the current behaviour of the market.
Appendix 19A: Monetary targets in the UK.
Appendix 19B: Distortions to monetary data in the UK.
Appendix 19C: Velocity of circulation.
20 Monitoring Data for the Supply of Money.
20.1 Printing-press money.
20.2 Fountain-pen money.
20.3 The counterparts of broad money.
20.4 Forecasts.
20.5 Management information.
20.6 Discernible trends.
20.7 The public sectors borrowing in foreign currency and from abroad.
21 The Different Sectors of the Economy.
Conclusions.
Conclusion for industrialists.
Conclusion for policymakers.
Conclusions for investors.
Glossary.
References.
Index.
(0 Comentarios)
