Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy. The main focus of activity has been at the national level. Governments have sought to set priorities, to build networks between science and industry and, in some cases, to change their research system and administrative culture. Foresight has been used as a set of technical tools, or as a way to encourage more structured debate with wider participation leading to the shared understanding of long-term issues.In this comprehensive and critical handbook, cross-cutting analytical chapters explore the emergence and positioning of foresight, common approaches and methods, organisational issues, and the scope for policy transfer and evaluation. Leading experts and practitioners contribute chapters analysing experiences in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA, Japan, China, Latin America, small European nations, Nordic countries and selected developing countries. The book concludes with consideration of the future of foresight itself. This fascinating handbook will appeal equally to those wishing to apply foresight to their policy or strategy-making activities, and to those studying the theory and practice of foresight. The handbook will be vital reading for policymakers considering, commissioning, or using foresight, companies eager to use public foresight, as well as academics and researchers in foresight, futures and STI policy and management communities.
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Pt. 1 The nature of foresight
1 The many faces of foresight by Ian Miles and Jennifer Cassingena Harper and Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper 24
2 From futures to foresight by Ian Miles 24
3 Foresight methodology by Rafael Popper 44
Pt. 2 Foresight experience around the world
4 Foresight in the United Kingdom by Michael Keenan and Ian Miles 91
5 Foresight in France by Remi Barre 112
6 Foresight in Germany by Kerstin Cuhls 131
7 Foresight in the USA by Alan L. Porter and W. Bradford Ashton 154
8 Foresight in Japan by Terutaka Kuwahara and Kerstin Cuhls and Luke Georghiou 170
9 Foresight in Nordic countries by Annele Eerola and Birte Holste Jorgensen 184
10 Foresight in small countries by Patrick Crehan and Jennifer Cassingena Harper 216
11 Foresight in industrialising Asia by Ron Johnston and Chatri Sripaipan 237
12 Foresight in Latin America by Rafael Popper and Javier Medina 256
13 Foresight in CEE countries by Attila Havas and Michael Keenan 287
Pt. 3 Policy and management issues in foresight
14 Policy transfer and learning by Luke Georghiou and Jennifer Cassingena Harper 319
15 Scoping and planning foresight by Michael Keenan and Ian Miles 342
16 Evaluation and impact of foresight by Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan 376
17 New frontiers : emerging foresight by Ian Miles and Jennifer Cassingena Harper and Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper