Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xxi About the Author xxiii Chapter 1 Introduction to the Art and Science of Technical Analysis 1 1.1 Main Objective of Technical Analysis 1 1.2 Dual Function of Technical Analysis 3 1.3 Forecasting Price and Market Action 3 1.4 Classifying Technical Analysis 11 1.5 Subjectivity in Technical Analysis 16 1.6 Basic Assumptions of Technical Analysis 30 1.7 Four Basic Assumptions in the Application of Technical Analysis 39 1.8 Market Participants 40 1.9 Chapter Summary 42 Chapter 1 Review Questions 43 CHAPTER 2 Introduction to Dow Theory 45 2.1 Origins and Proponents of Dow Theory 45 2.2 Basic Assumptions of Dow Theory 46 2.3 Challenges to Dow Theory 62 2.4 Chapter Summary 64 Chapter 2 Review Questions 64 CHAPTER 3 Mechanics and Dynamics of Charting 65 3.1 The Mechanics and Dynamics of Charting 65 3.2 Gap Action: Four Types of Gaps 72 3.3 Constant Chart Measures 73 3.4 Futures Contracts 89 3.5 Chapter Summary 97 Chapter 3 Review Questions 98 CHAPTER 4 Market Phase Analysis 99 4.1 Dow Theory of Market Phase 99 4.2 Chart Pattern Interpretation of Market Phase 104 4.3 Volume and Open Interest Interpretation of Market Phase 112 4.4 Moving Average Interpretation of Market Phase 115 4.5 Divergence and Momentum Interpretation of Market Phase 116 4.6 Sentiment Interpretation of Market Phase 118 4.7 Sakata s Interpretation of Market Phase 119 4.8 Elliott s Interpretation of Market Phase 120 4.9 Cycle Analysis Interpretation of Market Phase 122 4.10 Chapter Summary 124 Chapter 4 Review Questions 124 CHAPTER 5 Trend Analysis 125 5.1 Definitions of a Trend 125 5.2 Quality of Trend: 16 Price Characteristics Impacting Future Price Action and Trend Strength 132 5.3 Price and Trend Filters 144 5.4 Trend Participation 145 5.5 Price Inflection Points 148 5.6 Trendlines, Channels, and Fan Lines 155 5.7 Trend Retracements 166 5.8 Gaps and Trends 166 5.9 Trend Directionality 168 5.10 Drummond Geometry 169 5.11 Forecasting Trend Reversals 170 5.12 Chapter Summary 171 Chapter 5 Review Questions 171 CHAPTER 6 Volume and Open Interest 173 6.1 The Mechanics of Volume Action 173 6.2 Volume Oscillators 203 6.3 Chapter Summary 208 Chapter 6 Review Questions 208 CHAPTER 7 Bar Chart Analysis 209 7.1 Price Bar Pattern Characteristics 209 7.2 Price Bar Pattern Characteristics 211 7.3 Popular Bar Reversal Patterns 218 7.4 Volatility ]Based Breakout Patterns 230 7.5 Chapter Summary 233 Chapter 7 Review Questions 233 CHAPTER 8 Window Oscillators and Overlay Indicators 235 8.1 Defining Indicators and Oscillators 235 8.2 Eight Ways to Analyze an Oscillator 240 8.3 Cycle Period, Multiple Timeframes, and Lagging Indicators 252 8.4 Input Data 253 8.5 Trend Trading Using Oscillators 255 8.6 Window Oscillators 255 8.7 Overlay Indicators 262 8.8 Chapter Summary 266 Chapter 8 Review Questions 266 CHAPTER 9 Divergence Analysis 267 9.1 Definition of Divergence 268 9.2 General Concept of Divergence 272 9.3 Standard and Reverse Divergence 291 9.4 Price Confirmation in Divergence Analysis 323 9.5 Signal Alternation between Standard and Reverse Divergence 337 9.6 More Examples of Divergence 338 9.7 Chapter Summary 354 Chapter 9 Review Questions 355 CHAPTER 10 Fibonacci Number and Ratio Analysis 357 10.1 The Fibonacci Number Series 357 10.2 Fibonacci Ratios 359 10.3 Fibonacci Retracements, Extensions, Projections, and Expansions 363 10.4 Fibonacci ( ]Based) Percentage Retracement Levels within an Observed Price Range 368 10.5 Fibonacci ( ]Based) Percentage Extension Levels beyond an Observed Price Range 375 10.6 Fibonacci ( ]Based) Percentage Expansion Levels beyond an Observed Price Range 379 10.7 Fibonacci ( ]Based) Percentage Projection Levels from a Significant Peak or Trough 384 10.8 Why Should Fibonacci Ratios or Numbers Work at All? 388 10.9 Geometrically versus Numerically Based Fibonacci Operations 389 10.10 The Fibonacci Trader s Technical Toolbox 392 10.11 Area of Application 394 10.12 Selecting Effective Inflection Points for Fibonacci Operations 396 10.13 Fibonacci, Dow, Gann, and Floor Trader s Pivot Point Levels 397 10.14 Probability of Continuation and Reversal in Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions 400 10.15 Fibonacci ]Based Entries, Stoplosses, and Minimum Price Objectives 400 10.16 Fibonacci Two ] and Three ]Leg Retracements 402 10.17 Fibonacci Fan Lines 409 10.18 Fibonacci Channel Expansions 412 10.19 Fibonacci Arcs 414 10.20 Supportive and Resistive Fibonacci Clusters 415 10.21 Potential Barriers in Fibonacci Projections 417 10.22 Fibonacci Time and Ratio Projection Analysis on Elliott Waves 417 10.23 Chapter Summery 431 Chapter 10 Review Questions 431 CHAPTER 11 Moving Averages 433 11.1 Seven Main Components of Moving Averages 433 11.2 Nine Main Applications of Moving Averages 451 11.3 Chapter Summary 462 Chapter 11 Review Questions 463 CHAPTER 12 Envelopes and Methods of Price Containment 465 12.1 Containing Price Action and Volatility about a Central Value 465 12.2 Adjusting Bands for Effective Price Containment 475 12.3 Methods of Price Containment 477 12.4 Chapter Summery 492 Chapter 12 Review Questions 492 CHAPTER 13 Chart Pattern Analysis 495 13.1 Elements of Chart Pattern Analysis 495 13.2 Preconditions for Reliable Chart Pattern Reversals 499 13.3 Popular Chart Patterns 502 13.4 Chapter Summery 540 Chapter 13 Review Questions 540 CHAPTER 14 Japanese Candlestick Analysis 541 14.1 Elements of Candlestick Analysis 541 14.2 Popular Candlestick Patterns and Their Psychology 555 14.3 Integrating Candlestick Analysis 578 14.4 Filtered Candlesticks 583 14.5 Trading with Candlesticks 584 14.6 Chapter Summary 588 Chapter 14 Review Questions 588 CHAPTER 15 Point ]and ]Figure Charting 589 15.1 Basic Elements of Point ]and ]Figure Charts 589 15.2 Basic Point ]and ]Figure Chart Patterns 600 15.3 Point ]and ]Figure Minimum Price Objectives 619 15.4 Bullish Percent Index and Relative Strength 623 15.5 Chapter Summary 624 Chapter 15 Review Questions 624 CHAPTER 16 Ichimoku Charting and Analysis 627 16.1 Constructing the Five Ichimoku Overlays 627 16.2 Functional Aspect of Ichimoku Overlays 633 16.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Ichimoku Charting 643 16.4 Time and Price Domain Characteristics of Ichimoku Overlays 644 16.5 Basic Ichimoku Price ]Projection Techniques 649 16.6 Chapter Summary 649 Chapter 16 Review Questions 650 CHAPTER 17 Market Profile 651 17.1 The Search for Fair Price or Value 651 17.2 The Daily Profile Formations 665 17.3 Chapter Summary 671 Chapter 17 Review Questions 671 CHAPTER 18 Basic Elliott Wave Analysis 673 18.1 Elements of Elliott Wave Analysis 673 18.2 Rules and Guidelines 676 18.3 Motive Waves 676 18.4 Corrective Waves 678 18.5 Wave Extensions and Truncation 682 18.6 Alternation 683 18.7 Wave Equality 683 18.8 Fibonacci Ratio and Number Analysis of Elliott Waves 684 18.9 Chapter Summary 684 Chapter 18 Review Questions 684 CHAPTER 19 Basics of Gann Analysis 687 19.1 Techniques of W. D. Gann 687 19.4 Chapter Summary 710 Chapter 19 Review Questions 711 CHAPTER 20 Cycle Analysis 713 20.1 Elements of Cycle Analysis 713 20.2 Principles of Cycle Analysis 720 20.3 Additional Cyclic Characteristics 724 20.4 Tuning Oscillator and Overlay Indicators to the Dominant Cycle Period 725 20.5 Identifying Price Cycles 726 20.6 Chapter Summary 731 Chapter 20 Review Questions 731 CHAPTER 21 Volatility Analysis 733 21.1 The Concept of Change and Volatility 733 21.2 Some Statistical Measures of Price Volatility 743 21.3 Other Measures of Market Volatility 754 21.4 Chapter Summary 757 Chapter 21 Review Questions 757 CHAPTER 22 Market Breadth 759 22.1 Elements of Broad Market Action 759 22.2 Components of Market Breadth 762 22.3 Market ]Breadth Indicators in Action 765 22.4 Chapter Summary 777 Chapter 22 Review Questions 777 CHAPTER 23 Sentiment Indicators and Contrary Opinion 779 23.1 Assessing the Emotion and Psychology of Market Participants 779 23.2 Price ]Based Indicators versus Sentiment Indicators 783 23.3 Assessing Participant Actions 784 23.4 Assessing Participants Opinions 788 23.5 Chapter Summary 791 Chapter 23 Review Questions 791 CHAPTER 24 Relative Strength Analysis 793 24.1 Measuring Relative Performance 793 24.2 Chapter Summary 811 Chapter 24 Review Questions 811 CHAPTER 25 Investor Psychology 813 25.1 General Behavioral Aspects 813 25.2 Behavioral Elements Associated with Chart Patterns 815 25.3 Behavioral Elements Associated with Market Trends 817 25.4 Behavioral Aspects of Market Consolidations 820 25.5 Behavioral Aspects of Market Reversals 821 25.6 Chapter Summary 823 Chapter 25 Review Questions 823 CHAPTER 26 Trader Risk Profiling and Position Analysis 825 26.1 Fulfilling Client Objectives and Risk Capacity 826 26.2 Aggressive and Conservative Market Participation 827 26.3 Categorizing Clients according to Term Outlook and Sentiment 835 26.4 The Seven Participatory Options 838 26.5 Triggers, Signals, Price Targets, and Stoplosses 838 26.6 Confirming and Non ]Confirming Price Action and Filters 841 26.7 Collecting, Categorizing, and Organizing Technical Data 843 26.8 Multi ]Timeframe Confirmation 845 26.9 Reconciling Technical Outlook with Client Interest 846 26.10 Hedging Positions with Derivatives 847 26.11 Chapter Summary 847 Chapter 26 Review Questions 847 CHAPTER 27 Integrated Technical Analysis 849 27.1 The Integrated Components of Technical Analysis 849 27.2 Classification of Clusters and Confluences 854 27.3 Chapter Summary 877 Chapter 27 Review Questions 877 CHAPTER 28 Money Management 879 28.1 Elements of Money Management 879 Chapter 28 Review Questions 912 CHAPTER 29 Technical Trading Systems 913 29.1 Conceptualizing a Trading System 913 29.2 Basic Components of a Trading System 915 29.3 System Testing and Optimization 915 29.4 Performance Measurement 919 29.5 Chapter Summary 920 Chapter 29 Review Questions 920 Appendix A Basic Investment Decision Making Based on Chart Analysis 923 Appendix B Official IFTA CFTe, STA Diploma (UK), and MTA CMT Exam Reading Lists 933 About the Test Bank and Website 937 Index 939