PRAISE FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN TURBULENT TIMES "The depth of analysis and breath of coverage can only come from someone with a sound understanding of the issues involved, and written in a style that is easy to read and can be understood by the non-specialist. Anybody with even the slightest interest in current economic matters and regional financial affairs should own and read this book. You will be richly rewarded. You will not find another book quite like it." Dr. Nazrin Shah, Sultan of Perak, Malaysia, and Royal Patron, International Islamic Financial Centre "I wish the leaders of Europe and America as much as the leaders of Malaysia would read what he has to say. I think many of us are in denial, but reading the essays in this book might help us to acknowledge the truth. I read textbooks but I prefer to do my own thinking. This process is helped by reading some of the writings of See-Yan. I would recommend this book be read by people entrusted with guiding and leading their societies and nations." Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia, 1981 2003 "In all of these essays, seemingly complex economic issues are explained without technical jargon in ways that any educated person can follow even if they have no background in economics. Most economists have trouble being both rigorous and clear, but Dr. Lin is a notable exception. This book can be read from cover to cover, but for many readers it will serve two roles. It is an excellent reference book. It is also a book for use as a very good university course on global economic issues." Dwight H. Perkins, Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus, Harvard University, and Chairman, International Academic Advisory Council, Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia, Sunway University "For over fifty years, through his wide global network of high-level policy analysts and his deep immersion in core domestic policy discussions, Prof. Lin has helped to brainstorm and address every major macroeconomic crisis. In each case, he has lent his powerful analytical mind and sense of culture, history, and politics to help shape public policy responses to ameliorate the situation. It is my great pleasure and honor to help disseminate Lin See-Yan's great wisdom for the wide world." Jeffrey D. Sachs, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, Professor of Health Policy and Management, and Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University, and Special Adviser to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
Royal Prelude xlvii Foreword xlix Preface li Introduction liii About the Book lv Acknowledgments lix PART I THAT WAS THE WORLD THAT WAS (TW3) 1 CHAPTER 1 TW3 2008: The Year Free Markets Ran Amok 3 CHAPTER 2 2009: Oxpicious Year Ahead 9 CHAPTER 3 Beware of PME in a Jobless 2009 Recovery 17 CHAPTER 4 G-20 Summit, Pittsburgh 2009: Has It Worked ? 23 CHAPTER 5 TW3 2009: Growing Again, but Hold on Tight 29 CHAPTER 6 Summer 2010: In for a Bumpy Ride, Even a Double-Dip? 35 CHAPTER 7 G-20 Summit, Toronto 2010: Reflects a Fragile Unity 41 CHAPTER 8 IMF Meet, Fall 2010: A Cop-Out 47 CHAPTER 9 G-20 Summit, Seoul 2010: Much Ado about Nothing 53 CHAPTER 10 TW3 2010: The World Trichotomized 59 CHAPTER 11 Prospects 2011: As the World Turns 65 CHAPTER 12 A Check-up at Mid-Year, 2011 71 CHAPTER 13 Gloomy Outlook Takes Its Toll, 2011 2012 77 CHAPTER 14 G-20 Summit, Cannes 2011; APEC, Honolulu 2011: Without Gusto! 83 CHAPTER 15 TW3 2011: Annus Horribilis 89 CHAPTER 16 G-20 Summit, Los Cabos 2012 GJAP: More of the Same 95 CHAPTER 17 APEC, Vladivostok 2012: A New Perspective 101 CHAPTER 18 TW3 2012: A Tough Year with a Bleak Outlook 107 CHAPTER 19 2013: Breadth of Global Slowdown Disconcerting 113 CHAPTER 20 TW3 2013: Tension and Risks; a Peek at 2014 119 CHAPTER 21 Spring 2014 Stock Take: Complex Risks Ahead 127 PART II TROUBLE WITH THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 133 CHAPTER 22 The Paradox of Thrift 135 CHAPTER 23 Deflation Is Not an Option 141 CHAPTER 24 Reality Check on Economic Models 147 CHAPTER 25 Commodity and Asset Prices Are Up; Can Inflation Be Far Behind? 151 CHAPTER 26 A New Hazard: Double-Dip Deflation 157 CHAPTER 27 The New Normal 163 CHAPTER 28 Muddling Through the Inflation 169 CHAPTER 29 It s a Dangerous World out There 175 CHAPTER 30 Risk-Off Episodes 181 CHAPTER 31 Now s Not the Time for Austerity 187 CHAPTER 32 The World Economy: Growing Pains and Bubbly Worries 193 CHAPTER 33 What s Up Is Down 199 PART III THE UNITED STATES: JOBLESS RECOVERY 205 CHAPTER 34 Jackson Hole Gunfi ght Shoots Blanks 207 CHAPTER 35 The United States Is No Longer AAA 213 CHAPTER 36 Occupy Wall Street Goes Global 219 CHAPTER 37 Lessons from Marx to Market 225 CHAPTER 38 Sachs and Krugman on the Global Crisis 231 CHAPTER 39 Life after Keynes with the Double-Dip 237 CHAPTER 40 Growth Dims after the Cliff 243 CHAPTER 41 An Inconvenient Truth: QE Withdrawal Syndrome 249 CHAPTER 42 An Unnecessary Disaster Spawns Market Fears 255 CHAPTER 43 US Growth Deficit: Too Loose, Too Long 261 PART IV THE EUROPEAN UNION AND EUROZONE: MORE AUSTERITY 267 CHAPTER 44 Dark Clouds over Europe and the United States 269 CHAPTER 45 ECB and Fed Clear Way to Act 275 CHAPTER 46 Eurozone Growth Can t Move beyond First Gear but Needs to Keep Deflation at Bay 281 CHAPTER 47 PIIGS Can t Fly: The Trouble with Greece 287 CHAPTER 48 Greece Is Bankrupt 293 CHAPTER 49 Greek Bailout Mark II: It s a Default 299 CHAPTER 50 Greece and Eurozone: Austerity Fatigue 305 CHAPTER 51 Greece: More Aid Needed to Save the Austerity-Fatigued 311 CHAPTER 52 New Euro Deal: Not the Whole Bazooka 317 CHAPTER 53 European Union: Favoring Growth Against More Austerity 323 CHAPTER 54 European Union: A Summer of Discontent 329 CHAPTER 55 European Union: Draghi s Bumblebee 335 CHAPTER 56 Cyprus s Bailout Turns Bail-In 341 PART V JAPAN: DEAD ON BUT NOT DEADENED 347 CHAPTER 57 Japan in Deep Hibernation 349 CHAPTER 58 3-11: The Tohoku Disasters One Year On 355 CHAPTER 59 Japan Picks Up the Pieces 361 CHAPTER 60 Abenomics: Japan Comes Alive Again 367 CHAPTER 61 Abenomics Hitting Speed Bumps 373 PART VI THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM 377 CHAPTER 62 So, the Gold Bug Still Bugs You 379 CHAPTER 63 Man s Addiction to Gold 385 CHAPTER 64 In Search of Gold at Bretton Woods: Lust for Gold Not Paying Off 391 CHAPTER 65 What s Wrong with the International Monetary System? 399 CHAPTER 66 US Dollar: Cracking at the Seams 405 CHAPTER 67 The Dollar Quagmire 411 CHAPTER 68 The Trilemma of Capital Controls 417 CHAPTER 69 Burgernomics and the Ringgit 423 CHAPTER 70 The Yuan Way to a New Monetary Order 429 CHAPTER 71 Why Tokyo Failed to Be Top-Tier IFC 435 CHAPTER 72 At Risk: Beggar-Thy-Neighbor 441 CHAPTER 73 Currency Wars at a Time of Defi cient Demand 447 CHAPTER 74 Tension over Exchange Rates 453 CHAPTER 75 RMB: What s a Budding Currency to Do? 459 CHAPTER 76 The Kiss of Debt 465 CHAPTER 77 This Obsession with Debt 471 CHAPTER 78 The Tobin Tax Revisited 477 CHAPTER 79 Dubai: Or Is It Bye-Bye? 483 CHAPTER 80 Whatever Volcker Wants, Volcker Gets? 489 CHAPTER 81 Too-Big-to-Fail and the Volcker Rule Faces Fresh Challenges 495 CHAPTER 82 LIBOR Scandal Fuss 501 CHAPTER 83 Wall Street Stock Market Rigged: HFT Cheetahs Only Take 13,000ths of a Second to Turn a Profit 511 CHAPTER 84 Shadow Banking: The Global Bogeyman 517 PART VII GOING GREEN 521 CHAPTER 85 Blue Ocean That s Also Green 523 CHAPTER 86 The Crimson Goes Green 527 CHAPTER 87 The Road to Copenhagen 533 CHAPTER 88 RIO+20: What a Huge Disappointment 539 PART VIII SOCIAL ISSUES OF CONCERN 545 CHAPTER 89 9.6 Billion 547 CHAPTER 90 The Seven ]Billionth Baby Is Born 553 CHAPTER 91 The Ominous Demographic Dilemma 559 CHAPTER 92 The Quality of Life 565 CHAPTER 93 The Emerging Bourgeoisie 571 CHAPTER 94 Rising Income Inequality and the Piketty Blockbuster 577 CHAPTER 95 Has Undergraduate Education Lost Its Way? 581 CHAPTER 96 The MBA: Is It Still Relevant? 587 CHAPTER 97 375 Years and Still Number One 595 CHAPTER 98 Onward the Harvard Connection 601 CHAPTER 99 The Future of University Education: What It Takes to Be Educated 609 CHAPTER 100 Schumpeternomics: Gotta Keep on Learning 615 PART IX MALAYSIAN TRANSFORMATION AND INNOVATION 619 CHAPTER 101 Getting Cangkul ]Ready 621 CHAPTER 102 Now the Real Pain Begins 625 CHAPTER 103 Mahathir s Challenge 631 CHAPTER 104 Stimulating Times 637 CHAPTER 105 Price Fixing, Market Sharing, and Collusion Are Illegal 643 CHAPTER 106 Najib s New Way Forward 649 CHAPTER 107 We Still Don t Get It 653 CHAPTER 108 Creativity: The Key to NEM s Success 659 CHAPTER 109 The Mystique of National Transformation 665 CHAPTER 110 Toward Quality Undergraduate Education 673 CHAPTER 111 Innovation: Catalyst for Recovery 679 CHAPTER 112 On Productivity and Talent Management 685 CHAPTER 113 Finance for Innovative Ventures: Broken Dreams? 691 CHAPTER 114 Venture Capital Initiatives to Boost Entrepreneurship 697 PART X EMERGING EAST ASIA, ASEAN, AND BRICS 703 CHAPTER 115 Export ]Led Growth Model: Quo Vadis? 705 CHAPTER 116 Go East, Young Man 711 CHAPTER 117 Asia Feels the Heat 717 CHAPTER 118 QE3 Exit and Asia s Trilemma 723 CHAPTER 119 Focus of Concern: Emerging Asia at Risk 729 CHAPTER 120 ASEAN Stimulus 735 CHAPTER 121 ASEAN+3 Stimuli 741 CHAPTER 122 AEC Is on the Way, but It s No Big Deal 747 CHAPTER 123 South Korea Emerges More Competitive 755 CHAPTER 124 The Philippines: Its Turn Is Next 761 CHAPTER 125 Indonesia Losing Its Footing? 767 CHAPTER 126 Indonesia and India: Under New Management 773 CHAPTER 127 Vietnam Wakes Up: Ding Dong Dung 779 CHAPTER 128 Thailand on the Rebound 785 CHAPTER 129 Myanmar: Not the Burma I Used to Know 791 CHAPTER 130 Myanmar Spring: Look, Listen, Learn, and Leave 797 CHAPTER 131 The BRICS Are Coming ... 805 CHAPTER 132 BRICS Can t Run as a Herd 811 CHAPTER 133 Acronym Anxiety: BRICS Are Stumbling 817 CHAPTER 134 China: Realities about Its BOP Surpluses 823 CHAPTER 135 China: RMB Flexibility Not Enough 829 CHAPTER 136 China: Much Ado about Nothing 835 CHAPTER 137 The China Dream 841 CHAPTER 138 China: Economic Slowdown: A Cause for Concern? 847 CHAPTER 139 China: The Third Plenum Reforms Are Well Received, but the New Deal Flashes Danger Signals 853 CHAPTER 140 China: Multiple Policy Dilemmas 859 CHAPTER 141 China: Rebalancing Growth with Reform and Moving Up to the Next Level 867 CHAPTER 142 India: The Outlook Dims 873 CHAPTER 143 A Passage to India : The Outlook Remains Dire 879 PART XI CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT 885 CHAPTER 144 On Corporate Governance and Doing It Right 887 CHAPTER 145 The CG Blueprint 2011: Let a Hundred Flowers Bloom 893 CHAPTER 146 Creative Destruction: Kodak Moment No More 899 CHAPTER 147 The F&N Saga 905 CHAPTER 148 On Global Gaming, Aussie$, the SGX ASX Merger 913 CHAPTER 149 In Search of Growth 921 CHAPTER 150 The Goat Straggles into 2015 amid Rising Risks 931 CHAPTER 151 2015: A Dismal World Where Oil and Currencies Are Causing Havoc 937 Notes 941 About the Author 943 Index 945
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