This book grasps the opportunity to show the strength of AGMEMOD in terms of baseline analysis at detailed regional and market levels, supported by an experienced team of country-based modellers. This analysis, produced using the AGMEMOD model, will be of interest to researchers working in the field of agricultural policy analysis as well as to policy makers from both the European Commission and its member states' agriculture ministries.
PART I Introduction 1. Background 1.1 Origins of EU and CAP 1.1.1 Recent CAP Reforms 1.1.2 Future Evolution of CAP 1.2 Modelling the CAP at Member State Level 1.2.1 Heterogeneity of EU Agriculture 1.2.2 Heterogeneity of EU Agricultural Policy 1.2.3 Heterogeneity of CAP Outcomes 1.3 Model Features 1.4 Economic Models of European Agriculture 1.5 The Baseline Concept 1.6 Conclusion 2. Model Structure and Parameterisation 2.1 PE Model Structure 2.2 AGMEMOD Model Structure 2.2.1 Country and Commodity Coverage 2.2.2 Functional Form 2.2.3 Price Formation and Market Closure 2.3 Estimating and Testing 2.4 Policy Modelling 2.5 Conclusion 3. AGMEMOD Model 3.1 Database 3.1.1 Mnemonics Protocol 3.1.2 Endogenous Variables 3.1.3 Exogenous Variables 3.1.4 Data Generator Tool 3.2 Combination of Country Models 3.2.1 From Conceptual to Computer Model 3.2.2 GAMS Generator Tool 3.3 AGMEMOD User Interface 3.3.1 Viewing and Revising Data 3.3.2 Viewing and Revising Equations 3.3.3 Viewing and Revising the GAMS Model 3.3.4 Running the Model and Showing the Output 3.4 Validation 3.4.1 Procedure 3.4.2 Helpful Tools 3.5 Conclusion PART II 4. EU Market Outlook 4.1 Baseline Formulation 4.1.1 Marcoeconomy 4.1.2 World Market Prices 4.1.3 Agricultural (Trade) and Biofuel Policies 4.2 EU Baseline Market Outlook 4.2.1 EU Grains and Oilseeds Baseline 4.2.2 EU Other Crops Baseline 4.2.3 EU Livestock and Meat Baseline 4.2.4 EU Milk and Dairy Products Baseline 4.3 Conclusion 5. The CAP Beyond 2013 5.1 CAP Direct Payment Issue 5.2 Methodological Concept and Scenarios Definition 5.3 Scenario Results 5.3.1 Grains and Oilseeds 5.3.2 Livestock and Meat 5.3.3 Milk and Dairy Products 5.4 Conclusion 6. Conclusions and Future Work Index
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