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The Emerging Debt Problems of Small States

The Emerging Debt Problems of Small States

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In recent years there has been a significant rise in the indebtedness of small states. However, unlike major debtors and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), the emerging debt problems of small, mainly middle income, states have received little international recognition and attention. Thirteen small middle-income Caribbean economies are amongst the most indebted thirty emerging market economies in the world. Similar conditions apply in a number of other small economies in Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Dinesh Dodhia examines the history of this indebtedness, its likely causes in different economies, and prospects for dealing with the debt problem in the future.He argues that there is a need for a comprehensive international framework to deal with it, covering: fiscal discipline in small states themselves; improved debt recording and debt management; insurance and grant financing mechanisms that respond to the challenges posed by natural disasters; continued grant and concessional financing for small states; adequate compensation for preference erosion, and support for the efforts of small states to promote private investment for diversification and growth. This is the first substantial investigation of a newly-recognised international problem

Pt. I The Emerging Debt Problems of Small States: Causes and Prospects
1 Introduction 3
2 Rising Debt Burdens in Small Economies: Some Stylized Facts 5
Caribbean small states 6
Pacific Ocean small states 9
Indian Ocean and African small states 11
3 Factors Responsible For Rising Debt Indicators in Small States 12
A quantitative assessment of the role of different factors 12
Reduced contribution of growth 16
Deterioration in primary balances 18
Rise in interest costs 25
4 Future Debt Prospects 30
Pt. II An International Framework to Address the Debt Problems of Small States
5 The Need for a Comprehensive Framework 37
6 Fiscal Discipline and Benchmarks 38
Fiscal adjustment experience and strategy 38
Fiscal benchmarks and fiscal responsibility laws 42
The need to build domestic consensus 44
Antigua workshop statement: Conclusions on fiscal discipline 45
7 Debt Recording, Management and Restructuring 46
Improving financial statistics and debt management 46
Debt restructuring 50
Antigua workshop statement: Conclusions on debt recording, management and restructuring 54
8 Insurance, Contingency and Grant Financing Mechanisms to Respond to Shocks 55
Domestic measures 55
Regional and international measures 57
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