Modelling and simulation of dynamic systems for better business strategy The performance of firms and industries over time rarely unfolds in the way management teams expect or intend. By modelling and simulating the relationships among the parts of an enterprise it is possible to anticipate potential problems, avoid strategic pitfalls and take steps to improve performance. This new updated second edition of Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to effective and insightful modelling for management; helping readers to understand, among myriad factors, those most relevant to the success and destiny of firms and industries. Written by an internationally regarded authority, this comprehensive guide covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to technical, with a strong emphasis on clear communication of model-based insights and careful narrative interpretation of simulations. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. To reinforce the book s message there is a rich Learner s website that includes models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy to use simulators enable readers to role-play in dynamically complex systems and to experience hidden cross-functional coordination problems that frequently undermine strategy. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry. Together the book and website deliver a powerful blended learning package that: * Introduces the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society * Includes industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software * Provides the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling * Offers a rich Learner s website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructor s website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see links to these companion websites below)
About the Author xix Foreword xxi Preface to the Second Edition xxiii Preface and Acknowledgments from the First Edition xxvii How to Use This Book xxxvii Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1 Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31 Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 63 Chapter 4 World of Showers 91 Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 109 Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 169 Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 201 Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 271 Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 333 Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 403 Index 000
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