Organisations today are being challenged to make sense of changes in environments that, now more than ever, are described as VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous). They are also being driven to understand how the future will evolve and what impact it will have not only on the organisations themselves but also on industries and societies. In recent decades a field has emerged to support organisations in addressing these challenges: strategic foresight.
This book is a comprehensive introduction to strategic foresight. It presents a history of the field and explains the main principles in thinking about the future. The book describes how organisations can apply strategic foresight and explains how it relates to other fields such as strategy, innovation, and leadership, highlighting the relevance of strategic foresight not only for organisations but also for individuals, particularly managers and leaders. Grounded in the theoretical foundations of strategic foresight, the book reflects the latest academic research and explores practical applications in different contexts. It draws on more than two decades of experience that the author has in the field as a researcher and as a consultant in the corporate context.
This is essential reading for managers and leaders of public and private organisations who want to establish strategic foresight practices, as well as students of foresight and managers in the fields of innovation, research & development, and marketing.
Part I: Background to strategic foresight 1. Historical development of strategic foresight (by Theresa Schropp) 2. Thinking about the future Part II: Applications of strategic foresight 3. Conceptualising strategic foresight 4. Weak signals and trends 5. Trend Receiver (by Rupert Hofmann) 6. The Delphi method: How experts see the future (by Heiko von der Gracht) 7. Scenario planning 8. Futures literacy laboratories (by Stefan Bergheim) 9. Business wargaming 10. Design thinking 11. Transformation and open strategy 12. Strategic foresight and its antecedents Part III: Strategic foresight in practice 13. Strategic foresight: An emerging field 14. Working with strategic foresight: Seven principles 15. Conclusion
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