In March 2012, the Financial Times carried a front page story headlined 'Years of struggle for a jinxed generation'. It stated that 'For the first time in half a century, young Britons embarking on their careers cannot expect to be any better off than their parents...' Before and since, there have been numerous analyses highlighting a gloomy future ahead, and with little qualification or equivocation. The prevailing consensus since 2007 has been that the economic world is in a dire state. But are things really as bad as all that, or is sloppy thinking and excessively negative sentiment masking a more positive outlook? Making Sense of Markets argues that received wisdom is still far too pessimistic, and that investment opportunities have been missed as a result. It suggests that the great panic of 2008 had its roots in finance, not a flawed global economy, and it tackles some popular concerns - debt, demography, Western decadence for example - head-on, showing succinctly why they have been overdone. The book will then explain how investors can take advantage of these insights in building a long-term investment portfolio. It pays particular attention to behavioral influences such as the interaction of media and markets. It suggests that the conventional view of investing as a search for an optimal portfolio - as opposed to a satisfactory one - is misplaced. It argues that conventional financial analysis, not investors' living standards, may be the long-term casualty of the latest seizure in capital markets. The recent gloom is understandable, but mistaken. Our children will likely be better off than we are and long-term investing is still worthwhile. This book provides a new, more positive outlook, and encourages investors to keep an open mind - and to keep investing.
Introduction: What We Talk About When We Talk About Markets PART I: THE GLASS IS HALF-FULL 1: Why Is Everybody So Gloomy? The Conventional Account Of What's Gone Wrong 2: An Alternative Account - A Richness Of Embarrassments Money Didn't Make The World Go Round 3: Five Big Things To Worry Less About - Or Why It Still Pays To Invest In The West 3.I: Debt - There Is Life After It 3.II: Demography - The Timebomb Defused 3.III. Decadence - The West Can Compete 3.IV: Depletion - The Sustainability Challenge 3.V: Danger - Geopolitical Tensions In Context 4: Sources Of Perspective - And A Tiger's Tale Taking A Wider View Raising The Signal-To-Noise Ratio Avoid Cliches Like The Plague Anchoring Downwards: Why Gloom Gets A Grip PART II: WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT 5: Know The Game, Know Yourself Be Satisficed: What Investment Is Not About, And The Importance Of Showing Up Know Your Pundits; The Only Theme Worth Investing In A Personal Investment Policy 6: Back To Basics: What You Need To Own - It's About Time Here For The Duration: The Key Investment Characteristics The Usual Suspects: The Main Asset Classes And The 'Must Haves' 7: Putting It All Together - Weighting In Vain? Reasonable Expectations And Fair Values Weighting In Vain 8: Conclusion - Postmodern Portfolio Theory
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