nvesting with the Trend provides an abundance of evidence for adapting a rules-based approach to investing by offering something most avoid, and that is to answer the "why" one would do it this way. It explains the need to try to participate in the good markets and avoid the bad markets, with cash being considered an asset class. The book is in three primary sections and tries to leave no stone unturned in offering almost 40 years of experience in the markets. Part I -- The focus is on much of the misinformation in modern finance, the inappropriate use of Gaussian statistics, the faulty assumptions with Modern Portfolio Theory, and a host of other examples. The author attempts to explain each and offer justification for his often strong opinions. Part II -- After a lead chapter on the merits of technical analysis, the author offers detailed research into trend analysis, showing how to identify if a market is trending or not and how to measure it. Further research involves the concept of Drawdown, which the author adamantly states is a better measure of investor risk than the oft used and terribly wrong use of volatility as determined by standard deviation. Part III -- This is where he puts it all together and shows the reader all of the steps and details on how to create a rules-based trend following investment strategy. A solid disciplined strategy consists of three parts, a measure of what the market is actually doing, a set of rules and guidelines to tell you how to invest based upon that measurement, and the discipline to follow the strategy
Foreword ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xv Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Part I: Market Fiction, Flaws, and Facts 13 Chapter 2 Fictions Told to Investors 15 Chapter 3 Flaws in Modern Financial Theory 27 Chapter 4 Misuse of Statistics and Other Controversial Practices 51 Chapter 5 The Illusion of Forecasting 57 Chapter 6 The Enemy in the Mirror 71 Chapter 7 Market Facts: Bull and Bear Markets 83 Chapter 8 Market Facts: Valuations, Returns, and Distributions 113 Part II: Market Research 139 Chapter 9 Why Technical Analysis? 141 Chapter 10 Market Trend Analysis 159 Chapter 11 Drawdown Analysis 231 Part III: Rules-Based Money Management 267 Chapter 12 Popular Indicators and Their Uses 269 Chapter 13 Measuring the Market 281 Chapter 14 Security Ranking, Selection, Rules, and Guidelines 319 Chapter 15 Putting It All Together: The "Dancing with the Trend" Model 355 Chapter 16 Putting Trend-Following to Work 391 Chapter 17 Conclusions 399 Appendix A: Passive versus Active Management 409 Appendix B: Trend Analysis Tables 413 Appendix C: Market Breadth 445 Appendix D: Recommended Reading 457 Bibliography 459 About the Author 467 About the Online Resources 469 Index 471
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