This book presents recent theoretical and empirical advances on business cycle analysis with particular attention to Euro-zone characteristics. It also identifies applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in the analysis of economic fluctuations and seeks to increase interaction between the academics, researchers and institutions in the area of business cycle analysis.
CONTENTS
PART 1: BUSINESS CYCLE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS
Official Statistics for Business Cycle Analysis; G.L.Mazzi & G.Savio
PART 2: MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL METHODS AND RECENT ADVANCES IN BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS
Bayesian Inference on Dynamic Models with Latent Factors; M.Billio, R.Casarin & D.Sartore
Output Fluctuations in G7 Countries: A Time-scale Decomposition Analysis; M.Crivellini, M.Gallegati, M.Gallegati & A.Palestrini
Trend Estimation, Signal-noise Ratios and the Frequency of Observations; A.C.Harvey & T.M.Trimbur
Bayes Estimates of the Cyclical Component in Twentieth Century US Gross Domestic Product; A.C.Harvey, T.M.Trimbur & H.K.van Dijk
The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production; D.R.Osborn & A.Matas-Mir
PART 3: SYNCHRONIZATION AND CONVERGENCE
Interacting Two-country Business Fluctuations: Euroland and the USA; T.Asada, C.Chiarella, P.Flaschel & R.Franke
How Does the Eurozone Respond to Shocks? A Common Trends and Common Cycles Analysis; R.Astolfi
How Similar are European Business Cycles?; M.U.Bergman
A Nonparametric Analysis of International Business Cycles; M.Bovi
Measuring the Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in the G7 Economies; M.Centoni, G.Cubadda & A.Hecq
Synchronisation of National Business Cycles in Europe?; G.Flaig, J-E.Sturm & U.Woitek
Modelling the Dynamic Convergence of Business Cycles; M.Lemoine
The Economic Integration of Candidate Countries in the European Union: An Analysis with a Three-level Dynamic Factor Model; M.Marini
European Business Cycle Affiliations with the USA; P.J.Perez, D.R.Osborn & M.Sensier
VAR Modelling of the Euro-area GDP on the Basis of Principal Component Analysis; N.Sdrakas
PART 4: COMPOSITE INDICATORS AND FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
A Time-Series Disaggregated Model to Forecast GDP in the Eurozone; R.Minguez & A.Espasa
Real-time Detection of the Business Cycle using SETAR Models; L.Ferrara & D.Guégan
Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting GDP Growth?; J.Hansson, P.Jansson & M.Löf
PART 5: TURNING POINTS DATING AND DETECTION
Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models; J.Anas, M.Billio, L.Ferrara & M.Lo Duca
A Turning-Point Chronology for the Eurozone; J.Anas, L.Ferrara, M.Billio, M.Lo Duca
Basic Characteristics of the Euro-area Business Cycle; A.Musso
PART 6: OUTPUT GAP MEASUREMENT
Stability Analysis in ARMA and Unobserved Component Models; J.Del Hoyo Bernat & J.L.Cenejas Bueno
Simultaneous Determination of NAIRU, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances; G.Hjelm
Density Estimates for Real-time Eurozone Output Gap Estimates; J.Mitchell
Optimal Bandpass Filtering and the Reliability of Current Analysis; S.van Norden
PART 7: MONETARY POLICY AND BUSINESS CYCLES
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Transmission in the Euro-area: Evidence from a Structural VAR Analysis; B.van Aarle, H.Garretsen & N.Gobbin
Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Euro-area; N.Cassola & C.Morana
Measuring the 'Financing Gap' of European Corporations: An Update; F.Galizia
The 'Savings Gap' of European Corporations: A First Look at the Available Data; F.Galizia with T.Steinberger
Explaining the Time-varying NAIRU in the Euro-area; C.Logeay & S.Tober
Asymmetries and Credibility in Monetary Policy of Euro-area; K.Mouratidis
