Global Economic Prospects 2006. Economic Implications Of Remmitances And Migration.

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ISBN:9780821363447
Editorial: Banco Mundial
Fecha de la edición:2005
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Dimensiones: 0 cm x 0 cm
Nº Pág.:158
Idiomas:Inglés,Ingles

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/ Economía Internacional

Following very strong growth, the world economy slowed in late 2004 and into 2005 as output began to push against capacity constraints. High oil prices cut into the incomes of oil-importers, but the expansion remained strong, partly because of favorable conditions in financial markets, including still low inflation, interest rates and interest-rate spreads. Tightness in the oil market, the threat of even higher fuel prices, and the possibility that interest rates may rise pose major threats to the expansion.

Slower, but still strong growth. World GDP is estimated to have increased by 3.2 percent in 2005, down from 3.8 in 2004. Growth is projected to be stable in 2006, before strengthening somewhat in 2007. The slowdown that began in the second half of 2004, was experienced throughout the industrialized world, with growth in Europe still under performing potential. In contrast, despite having slowed, the economies of Japan and the United States are expanding at close to their maximum sustainable rate.

Among large developing economies, GDP in 2005 continued to expand rapidly in China and India (in excess of 9 and about 7 percent, respectively), but slowed in Russia as growth in oil production slowed. High oil prices, in combination with domestic capacity constraints, and slower import demand from high-income countries are estimated to have reduced growth among oil-importing developing countries from 6.9 to 6.1 percent. In terms of real incomes, the slowdown was much sharper--from 6.4 to 3.7 percent. Despite still growing oil revenues, reduced opportunities to expand production in the petroleum sector meant that output growth in oil exporting developing countries also eased from 6.6 to 5.6 percent.