In recent years leading figures in a variety of fields - political, financial, medical, and organizational - have become acutely aware of the need to effectively incorporate aspects of risk into their decision-making. This book addresses a wide range of contemporary issues in decision research, such as how individuals deal with uncertainty and complexity, gender-based differences in decision-making, what determines decision performance and why people choose risky activities. The book presents results from academic research carried out over the last twenty years. A common theme is the study of decisions made in horserace betting markets, a research medium which offers a rich insight into decision-making in general and one which enjoys particular methodological advantages over laboratory-based simulations.This set of naturalistic studies explores the variety of individual motivations for betting, how people perceive and respond to the presence of uncertainty, the challenges of complex and turbulent information and the use of heuristics as a response, how decision-making performance is affected by structural or process-related features of the decision environment, and how men and women differ in their decision behaviour. The authors' interesting and novel findings offer a richer understanding of the psychological and economic underpinnings of betting behaviour which should inform practitioners, policymakers and regulators in an industry which is undergoing unprecedented global growth. This book is also relevant to courses covering subject areas such as financial markets, decision-making and behavioural finance.
List of illustrations
Pt. I Motivation for betting and risk taking 1
1 Towards an explanation of betting as a leisure pursuit by A. C. Bruce and J. C. V. Johnson 5
2 Costing excitement in leisure betting by A. C. Bruce and J. E. V. Johnson 25
3 Successful betting strategics: evidence from the UK off-course betting market by J. E. V. Johnson and A. C. Bruce 42
Pt. II The impact of complexity on decision-making behaviour 59
4 The complex decision: insights from naturalistic research by A. C. Bruce and J. E. V. Johnson 63
5 An empirical study of the impact of complexity on participation in horse-race betting by J. E. V. Johnson and A. C. Bruce 74
6 A probit model for estimating the effect of complexity on risk taking by J. E. V. Johnson and A. C. Bruce 86
7 Risk strategy under task complexity: a multivariate analysis of behaviour in a naturalistic setting by J. E. V. Johnson and A. C. Bruce 96
8 Decision-making under risk: effect of complexity on performance by A. C. Bruce and J. E. V. Johnson 117
Pt. III Gender differences in decision-making behaviour 127
9 Gender and DSS design: the research implications by P. L. Powell and J. E. V. Johnson 131
10 Male and female betting behaviour - new perspectives by A. C. Bruce and J. E. V. Johnson 172
11 Gender-based differences in leisure behaviour: performance, risk taking and confidence in off-course betting by A. C. Bruce and J. E. V. Johnson 184
12 Decision-making, risk and gender: are managers different? by J. E. V. Johnson and P. L. Powell 198
Pt. IV The use of information by decision-makers and deviations from rational economic behaviour 221
13 A violation of dominance and the consumption value of gambling by J. E. V. Johnson and R. O'Brien and H. S. Shin
