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Causality Models, Reasoning and Inference

Causality Models, Reasoning and Inference

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  • ISBN:9780521895606
  • Editorial: Cambridge University Press
  • Fecha de la edición:
  • Número de la edición: 2
  • Encuadernación:
  • Nº Pág.:484
  • Idiomas:Ingles,Inglés

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Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

1 Introduction to Probabilities, Graphs, and Causal Models 1
2 A Theory of Inferred Causation 41
3 Causal Diagrams and the Identification of Causal Effects 65
4 Actions, Plans, and Direct Effects 107
5 Causality and Structural Models in Social Science and Economics 133
6 Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility 173
7 The Logic of Structure-Based Counterfactuals 201
8 Imperfect Experiments: Bounding Effects and Counterfactuals 259
9 Probability of Causation: Interpretation and Identification 283
10 The Actual Cause 309
11 Reflections, Elaborations, and Discussions with Readers 331
Epilogue: The Art and Science of Cause and Effect
Bibliography 429
Name Index 453
Subject Index 459

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