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Adversarial Risk Analysis

Adversarial Risk Analysis

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  • ISBN:9781498712392
  • Editorial: Crc Press Inc.
  • Fecha de la edición:
  • Encuadernación:
  • Nº Pág.:224
  • Idiomas:Ingles,Inglés

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Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent and enables analysts to maximize their expected utilities.

Games and Decisions Game Theory: A Review Decision Analysis: An Introduction Influence Diagrams Problems Simultaneous Games Discrete Simultaneous Games: The Basics Modeling Opponents Comparison of ARA Models Problems Auctions Non-Strategic Play Minimax Perspectives Bayes Nash Equilibrium Level-k Thinking Mirror Equilibria Three Bidders Problems Sequential Games Sequential Games: The Basics ARA for Sequential Games Case Study: Somali Pirates Case Study: La Relance Problems Variations on Sequential Defend-Attack Games The Sequential Defend-Attack Model Multiple Attackers Multiple Defenders Multiple Targets Defend-Attack-Defend Games Learning A Security Case Study Casual Fare Evaders Collusion Pickpockets Evaders and Pickpockets Multiple Stations Terrorism Other Issues Complex Systems Applications Solutions to Selected Exercises References Index

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