Already the field's most comprehensive, reliable, and objective guidebook, Technical Analysis, Second Edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect the field's latest advances. Selected by the Market Technicians Association as the official companion to its prestigious Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program, this book systematically explains the theory of technical analysis, presenting academic evidence both for and against it. Using hundreds of fully updated illustrations, the authors explain the analysis of both markets and individual issues, and present complete investment systems and portfolio management plans. They present authoritative, up-to-date coverage of tested sentiment, momentum indicators, seasonal affects, flow of funds, testing systems, risk mitigation strategies, and many other topics. This edition thoroughly covers the latest advances in pattern recognition, market analysis, and systems management. The authors introduce new confidence tests; cover increasingly popular methods such as Kagi, Renko, Kase, Ichimoku, Clouds, and DeMark indicators; present innovations in exit stops, portfolio selection, and testing; and discuss the implications of behavioral bias for technical analysis. They also reassess old formulas and methods, such as intermarket relationships, identifying pitfalls that emerged during the recent market decline. For traders, researchers, and serious investors alike, this is the definitive book on technical analysis.
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Part I Introduction
1 Introduction to Technical Analysis 3
2 The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis---The Tread 9
How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money? 10
What is a Trend? 11
How are Trends Identified? 12
Trends Develop from Supply and Demand 14
What Trends are There? 15
What Other Assumptions do Technical Analysts Make? 17
Conclusion 19
Review Questions 20
3 History of Technical Analysis 23
Early Financial Markets and Exchanges 23
Modern Technical Analysis 26
Current Advances in Technical Analysis 30
4 The Technical Analysis Controversy 33
Do Markets Follow a Random Walk? 35
Fat Tails 36
Drawdowns 37
Proportions of Scale 39
Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future? 40
What About Market Efficiency? 41
New Information 42
Are Investors Rational? 46
Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium? 47
Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 49
Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis 50