The 9/11 attacks, the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, and the oil boom of recent years have greatly increased the strategic importance of resource-rich Central Asia, making an understanding of its economic - and therefore political - prospects more important than ever. In "The Central Asian Economies Since Independence", Richard Pomfret provides a concise and up-to-date analysis of the huge changes undergone by the economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The book assesses the economic prospects of each country, and the likelihood that economic conditions will spur major political changes. With independent chapters on each country, and chapters analyzing their comparative economic performance, the book highlights similarities and differences. Facing common problems caused by the breakdown of Soviet economic relations and the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, these countries have taken widely divergent paths in the transition from Soviet central planning to more market-based economies. The book ends in 2005 with the bloodless Kyrgyz revolution and the violence in Uzbekistan, which signaled the end of the region's political continuity. Throughout the book, Pomfret emphasizes the economic forces that foster political instability - from Kazakhstan's resource boom and Turkmenistan's lack of reform to Tajikistan's abject poverty.
Preface vii
CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Initial Conditions and Choice of Economic Policies 2
1.2 Economic Growth Performance Since Independence 9
1.3 Distribution 15
1.4 The Situation in the Early 2000s 18
1.5 Conclusions 21
PART I: The National Economies 23
CHAPTER 2: Uzbekistan:Economic Gradualism and Political Stability 25
2.1 The Uzbek Paradox,1991-97 25
2.2 The Reintroduction of Exchange Controls 30
2.3 The Economy in the Early 2000s 32
2.4 Conclusions 38
CHAPTER 3: Kazakhstan: Oil-Boom Economy 40
3.1 A Two-Part History 40
3.2 Macroeconomic Performance during the 1990s 42
3.3 Privatization 44
3.4 The Oil, Gas, and Minerals Sectors 50
3.5 Agriculture 55
3.6 Is Economic Diversi .cation Necessary to Avoid the Natural Resource Curse? 56
3.7 The Social Sectors 57
3.8 Conclusions 59
CHAPTER 4: Tajikistan: Civil War and Its Aftermath 61
4.1 The Political Background 62
4.2 Economic Performance 65
4.3 Economic Policies 66
4.4 Social Indicators and the Quality of Life 69
4.5 Conclusions 71
CHAPTER 5: The Kyrgyz Republic:The Region's Rapid Reformer 73
5.1 Creating a Market Economy 75
5.2 Developments in the Real Economy 78
5.3 Foreign Aid and External Debt 82
5.4 Health, Education, and Social Services 83
5.5 Conclusions 86
CHAPTER 6: Turkmenistan: The Realm of Turkmenbashi the Great 89
6.1 The Political Background 90
6.2 Initial Conditions and Economic Strategy 92
6.3 Economic Performance 96
6.4 Sustainability 99
6.5 Conclusions 102
PART II: Economic Performance 105
CHAPTER 7: Measuring Economic Performance 107
7.1 National-Accounts Measures of Output 107
7.2 National-Accounts Measures and Material Well-Being 111
7.3 Survey Evidence 113
7.4 Other Considerations 118
7.5 Conclusions: Putting It All Together 120
CHAPTER 8: Winners and Losers 123
8.1 Household Survey Data from the 1990s 123
8.2 Household Location 130
8.3 Household Composition 133
8.4 Education and Health 134
8.5 Demographic Traits and Year 135
8.6 Summary and Relations to Other Research 135
8.7 Conclusions 139
PART III: The International Context 141
9 The Role of Natural Resources 143
9.1 Cotton 143
9.2 Oil and Natural Gas 153
9.3 Minerals 160
9.4 Hydroelectricity 161
9.5 Other Natural Resources 163
9.6 Natural Resources and Economic Growth 165
9.7 Conclusions 167
Appendix: Measuring the Transfers from the Cotton Sector 168
CHAPTER 10: International Economic Policies: Regionalism and Integration into the World Economy 171
10.1 The Central Asian Countries' Trade Patterns and Policies 172
10.2 The World Trade Organization 175
10.3 The Attraction of Regionalism 183
10.4 Other Regional Issues 195
10.5 Conclusions 211
PART IV: Prospects 213
CHAPTER 11: Shared Problems and National Economic Differentiation 215
References 219
Index 231
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