Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible. This title features: questions at the start of each case that challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus; carefully crafted narratives that provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case; recommended readings at the end of each narrative that allow room for further research; sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" that frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to five analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study; two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates that support analysis and instruction; and, a matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases that augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents.
Introduction I. HOW DO I GET STARTED? 1. Who Are the Customers? 2. What Are the Key Questions? 3. What Is the Broader Context For Analysis? 4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product? 5. What Is My Analytic Approach? 6. Can Collaboration Contribute To a Better Answer? II. WHERE IS THE INFORMATION I NEED? 7. How Do Models Help My Analysis? 8. What Types Of Information Are Available? 9. Can I Trust My Sources? 10. How Should I Evaluate Sources On the Internet? III. WHAT IS MY ARGUMENT? 11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded? 12. Can I Make My Case? 13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses? 14. How Do I Deal With Politicization? 15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong? 11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded? 12. Can I Make My Case? 13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses? 14. How Do I Deal With Politicization? 15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong? IV. HOW DO I CONVEY MY MESSAGE EFFECTIVELY? 16. Is My Argument Persuasive? 17. How Should I Portray Probability and Levels Of Confidence? 18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis? 19. How Do I Present My Message In the Most Compelling Way? 20. How Do I Know When I Am Done? V. CASE STUDIES 21. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and its Broader Implications 22. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany 23. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers 24. Financial Crisis in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable? 25. Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?