The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This second edition extends the use of scenarios planning and methods to tackle the risk and uncertainty of financial markets and the potentially massive impacts on businesses of all kinds, providing powerful tools to give far thinking executives an advantage in these turbulent times. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.
List of Figures and Tables
Foreword by Vinee Cable
1 Introduction: Why Write This Book and for Whom? by Rafael Ramirez and Kees van der Heijden and John W. Selsky 3
2 Conceptual and Historical Overview by Rafael Ramirez and John W. Selsky and Kees van der Heijden 17
3 How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other? by Jaime Jimenez 31
4 Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective by Trudi Lang and Lynn Allen 47
5 New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought by Mary Bernard 65
6 Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis by Kees van der Heijden 87
7 Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence by Rob E. Roggema 103
8 Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare by Niklas Arvidsson 131
9 To What Extent Do Venezuela's Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue? by Martin Thomas 147
10 Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios by John W. Selsky and Joseph E. McCann 167
11 Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence by Rafael Ramirez 187
12 From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice by George Burt 207
13 Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground by Shirin Elahi 223
14 Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios? by Andromache Athanasopoulou 243
15 Turbulence, Business Planning and the Unfolding Financial Crisis by Kees van der Heijden and Rafael Ramirez and John W. Selsky and Angela Wilkinson
