The authors offer a revolutionary solution to risk management. It's the unknown risks that keep leaders awake at night-wondering how to prepare for and steer their organization clear from that which they cannot predict. Businesses, governments and regulatory bodies dedicate endless amounts of time and resources to the task of risk management, but every leader knows that the biggest threats will come from some new chain of events or unexpected surprises-none of which will be predicted using conventional wisdom or current risk management technologies and so management will be caught completely off guard when the next crisis hits. By adopting a scientific approach to risk management, we can escape the limited and historical view of experience and statistical based risk management models to expose dynamic complexity risks and prepare for new and never experienced events.
Framing the Risk Challenge.- Understanding the Hidden Risk of Dynamic Complexity.- Understanding the Nature of Risk.- Human Interaction and Perception of Risk.- Risk Evolves as Experience Evolves.- Why the Risk Comes as a Surprise.- Systemic and Systematic Risk.- How Risk is Currently Mitigated vs. How it Should be Mitigated.- Consequentialism is Necessary.- Uncertainty is the Enemy of Risk Management.- Modern Risk Management.- Evolution and Risk: The Bridge and the Missing Link.- Scientific Deterministic Risk Management.- The Role of Dynamic Complexity in Risk Propagation.- New Universal Risk Management Methodology (X-Act(R) OBC Platform).- Risk Discovery: Using Patterns to Spot the Unspottable.- Predictive Modeling.- Causal Deconstruction.- The Need for Hierarchic Predictive Emulation.- A Mathematical Treatise of Dynamic Complexity.- Emulative Deconstruction for Mathematical Prediction.- Singularity and Chaos Theory.- The Mathematical Solution.- Universal Risk Management Cases.- The Big Dig: Business Evolution and IT Dephasing Creates Dynamic Complexity.- From Corporate Survival to Revival.- An Industry Reinvented by Design: Postal Services.- Expanding Under Control and the Transformative Evolution.- Healthcare System Efficiency: Avoiding a Major Misdiagnosis.- The 2007 Financial Meltdown: Was it Avoidable?.- Greece in Crisis: The Haze, Mirage and Survival.- Dealing with the Growing Epidemic of Chronic Crisis.- Risk Management: A Future Perspective.- Disruption: The Way to Fight Chronic Risk.- Epilog.
